This appears to have contributed to the rise in prices. Experts predict that prices will gradually stabilize after peaking in August-September, but they do not see the current upward trend slowing down quickly.
Ru. Prior to the South Korean government's announcement of the September Consumer Price Trends, a survey of seven securities companies revealed that the price increase rate in September was 3.4% (median value) compared to the same month last year. record
Then it was tallied. After reaching its peak in July 2022 (6.3%), the price increase rate turned to a downward trend, dropping to 2.3% in July this year, but recording 3.4% again in August, the seventh
It has turned into an upward trend for the first time in months. The rise in raw material prices due to the rise in international crude oil prices, the rise in import prices due to the weaker won, and the mid-autumn celebration holidays are thought to be behind the 3% price increase rate.
Ru. According to the Korea National Oil Corporation's crude oil price information system Offinet, the average price of crude oil from Dubai, which South Korea mainly imports, was $92.8 per barrel (approximately 13,830 yen) in September.
This was an increase compared to April ($86.46/approx. 12,890 yen), and also higher than the same month last year ($90.9/approx. 13,550 yen). The dollar/won exchange rate was traded on the 26th of last month.
It recorded 1,349.5 won (approximately 148 yen). Cho Yong-gu, a research committee member at Shinyoung Securities, said, ``Following the sharp rise in prices in August, we expect a high rate of inflation in the mid-3% range in September as well.''
``Prices of agricultural, livestock, fishery, and food products have remained high due to the rise in import prices due to the rise in international crude oil prices and the weak won, as well as the mid-autumn celebration holiday at the end of September.''
The Bank of Korea also expects the price increase rate in September to be at the same level as August. Last month, Park Chang-hyun, head of the Bank of Korea Research Bureau's price trend section, said, ``Inflation will rise in September.''
The rate is likely to be at the same level as August, or slightly higher.''He added, ``Oil prices continue to rise, and agricultural prices are likely to rise due to weather conditions and demand for mid-autumn celebrations.'' There is a risk that pressure will increase
"There is," he explains. However, experts assess that the trend of price increases is slowing. Lee Seung-hoon, a research member at Meritz Securities, said, ``Fundamental prices excluding agricultural products and oil are
"The increase is expected to remain at 3.7% last month," predicting that the rate of increase will be smaller than in August (3.9%). Jeong Yeo-kyung, a researcher at NH Securities, also said, ``Price increase rate will rise in August.
"It has exceeded the 3% level since then, but this is just a temporary fluctuation rather than a change to an upward trend." There are predictions that the price increase rate will decline and stabilize from October onwards.
There is. However, the extent of the slowdown is not expected to be large, with the period when the inflation rate will reach the 2% range delayed from the fourth quarter of this year to next year. The key point is the upward trend in international crude oil prices.
The raft lasts forever. Lee Jung-hoon, a researcher at Eugene Investment & Securities, said, ``If the current crude oil price level continues, we expect the price increase rate in the fourth quarter to be in the low 3% range.''
We expect it to fall to the low 2% range in the first half of 2020." On the contrary, Ha Gong-hyun, a researcher at Shinhan Investment & Securities, said, ``The economy is better than expected, and demand in developed countries, which had been increasing, has returned.''
In addition to this, if imports of Iranian crude oil are resumed due to the recent restoration of relations between the United States and Iran, there is a possibility that crude oil prices will stabilize."
2023/10/04 07:00 KST
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