D) It was found that if member countries and China mutually derisk (risk reduction), South Korea could suffer relatively large damage. Under certain assumptions, South Korea's gross domestic product (GDP)
) may have a greater rate of decline than China. This report examines the situation of so-called "friendshoring" in which China and the OECD reorganize their supply chains around allies.
predicted that South Korea's GDP would decline by nearly 4%. The friend-shoring situation is a situation in which China and OECD member countries tighten non-tariff trade barriers to reduce their dependence on each other.
, assuming an environment that does not restrict trade with other countries. As a result, China will experience a long-term GD due to a decline in demand for Chinese-made products and an increase in production costs due to changes in the supply chain.
It was found that P decreased by 6.8%. South Korea (4%) was lower, but due to its strong relationship with China, it was assessed as suffering more damage than other economies whose GDP decline rate was less than 2%. world
The GDP decline rate for the global economy is at the 1.8% level, and the GDP decline for the remaining countries excluding China and the OECD is around 0.2%.
The study covers OECD member countries such as South Korea, the United States, Japan, the European Union (EU) and
We divided the situation into Switzerland, other developed countries, etc., and considered the impact on OECD full member countries as well as Southeast Asia and India.
On the other hand, China and the OECD can trade non-tariff trade not only with each other but with all countries.
The IMF has warned that in a situation of reshoring (the return of companies expanding overseas) that strengthens barriers to economic growth, South Korea's GDP may decline at a greater rate than China.
In the reshoring situation, consider reducing the dependence of OECD countries on external purchases by 3 percentage points by strengthening non-tariff trade barriers.
Established. The results showed that while China's GDP decreased by 6.9%, South Korea's GDP decreased by about 10%.
Southeast Asia (excluding Indonesia) also saw a 9.1% decline in GDP.
It is estimated that open economy countries with strong ties to China and the OECD and a high trade weight will suffer the most damage. While the GDP of OECD member countries is decreasing by around 3.8 to 10.2%, the US GDP
The rate of decline is expected to be less than 4%. It was also found that global GDP will contract by 4.5% due to distortions in resource allocation due to rising production costs and increased non-tariff barriers.
On the other hand, if the Chinese economy succeeds in reform, it is said to benefit mainly small open economies that are highly dependent on China, and the effect of increasing the growth rate of Southeast Asia (excluding Indonesia) and South Korea will be large.
It was expected. The IMF said that the fallout from de-risking is not limited to China, saying, "Rather than third countries passively waiting for the benefits of friend-shoring strategies, they should
"We must more actively promote reforms to further integrate the United States into the United States." Regarding this, South Korea's Ministry of Planning and Finance said, ``In 2000-2021, when the proportion of large-scale exports was high,
``This analysis targeted the year 2019,'' and countered that ``there is a high possibility that we overestimated the impact of dis-risk in South Korea.'' This is because it does not reflect changes in the trade structure that will reduce dependence on China after 2022.
This is an explanation that must be interpreted with caution. A ministry official said, ``In order to ensure stable export growth, we will continue to promote exports by diversifying export regions and products and strengthening industrial competitiveness, which have been sustained until now.
We will continue to strengthen our efforts to improve our performance."
2023/10/23 06:56 KST
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