Derivatives indicators reflect low buyer interest in Bitcoin and traders increasingly moving away from cash positions
The stock market rally has coincided with a notable decline in U.S. Treasury yields, traditionally a safe haven.
Bitcoin has risen 21% since retesting the sub-$50,000 level on the 5th, but remains above $62,000.
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has fully recovered and is trading 1% below its all-time high hit on July 16.
In essence, traders are prepared to accept lower returns on fixed income assets, which
The move likely reflects growing confidence in the Federal Reserve's strategy to contain inflation without triggering a recession.
The Fed has kept interest rates above 4% since last year and is expected to cut rates on September 18. Investors have been flocking to stocks and bonds in the face of economic uncertainty, traditionally the safest asset class.
Strong demand for supposedly long-term government bonds does not necessarily imply confidence in the purchasing power of the US dollar. If investors begin to realize that the US government's fiscal position is unsustainable, they may be more likely to buy.
Investors' initial reaction will likely be to seek protection in safer assets. If such a scenario were to play out, Bitcoin investors may feel some trepidation in the short term.
However, we can maintain a positive outlook for the long term. On the other hand, the minutes of the Federal Reserve Board meeting released on the 21st showed that a September interest rate cut would be appropriate.
Following the disclosure, Bitcoin recovered to $61,000 (approximately JPY 8.86 million).
2024/08/22 12:29 KST
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