Bitcoin has started the year on a strong note, rising more than 40% since the beginning of the year.
This comes amid several positive fundamentals, including the launch of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States and the halving, which will reduce Bitcoin rewards paid to miners by 50%.
Unlike previous cycles, Bitcoin hit an all-time high before the halving, which is why many analysts believe this halving will be a supercycle.
More than 120 days have passed since the Bitcoin halving, but the price of Bitcoin has yet to surpass its pre-halving all-time high.
There is a lot of debate going on about whether Bitcoin will start to rise in the fourth quarter of this year. Veteran trader and analyst Peter Brant
"This market cycle could be the longest in history since the halving," Brandt said in a post on X (formerly Twitter), adding, "This could be the first time we've seen a new all-time high."
"This suggests it may take a long time to reach (ATH) or it may never reach it."
Bitcoin consistently sees positive returns in the fourth quarter of the halving, according to CoinGlass data
It has recorded returns of 58% and 168% in 2016 and 2020, respectively.
Additionally, there will be positive fourth quarters in eight of the 11 years between 2013 and 2023.
The average return was 88%. Looking back at history, the probability that Bitcoin will start to rally in Q4 2024 is 73%.
Joo Ji-Young, founder and CEO of CryptoQuant, analyzed Bitcoin price fluctuations during the 2020 halving and concluded that the rally began in the fourth quarter.
He speculated that "in past Bitcoin halving cycles, bullish rallies have begun in the fourth quarter. Whales will not have a mediocre fourth quarter."
According to Zhou, the price of Bitcoin is currently in an accumulation phase, and once we enter the fourth quarter of 2024, Bitcoin may begin to rise parabolic.
This suggests that
2024/08/22 15:09 KST
Copyright(C) BlockchainToday wowkorea.jp 117