Possibility of war on the Korean Peninsula raised… ”More likely than since 1950” according to US analysis

US experts have said the likelihood of war on the Korean Peninsula is higher than it has been since the Korean War in 1950.
Foreign Policy (FP), a foreign affairs magazine, published an article on the 7th (local time) about the US Shin
The article was written by Robert Manning, an advanced researcher at the Robert Stimson Center. Manning said, "I don't think the worst case scenario of war on the Korean Peninsula will happen anytime soon.
However, North Korea's leader Kim Jong Eun has made ominous moves, declaring that the country possesses nuclear weapons and describing the relationship between South Korea and North Korea as a "hostile bilateral relationship."
"The likelihood that North Korea will take dramatic action in the next six to 18 months is increasing," Manning said. "The military might of North Korea will overwhelm South Korea and the North will be able to take control of the Korean peninsula."
"If Kim is convinced that a North Korean nuclear program would deter U.S. intervention, he will likely become even more provocative," the report said, citing a report from last year by the U.S. National Intelligence Council.
Furthermore, Manning summarized previous analyses by Korean experts and the NIC and presented two war scenarios.
The scenario is that South Korea will bombard Yeonpyeong Island in retaliation for the joint military exercises and then land troops directly on the island. In this case, South Korea will mobilize its air force and navy to attack North Korean ships and send marines to Yeonpyeong Island.
If the offensive and defensive battle continues, North Korea may detonate a tactical nuclear weapon on an uninhabited island in the West Sea (Yellow Sea). However, if such a scenario actually becomes a reality, it will be impossible to manage the situation.
Manning predicted that this would happen because the United States and South Korea do not have stable diplomatic or military channels with North Korea.
Manning also reported on the results of a study published last year by NICformer member Marcus Galoskas on the status of Taiwan and the Korean peninsula.
The second scenario presented was the possibility of a war breaking out at a time when China was invading Taiwan. In this scenario, North Korea would attack South Korea, hoping to take advantage of the opportunity for the United States to bring Asian military power into the region.
Of course, a scenario in which China and North Korea simultaneously invade Taiwan and South Korea, respectively, is also conceivable. However, even in such a situation, the United States and China are likely to continue to fight the Korean Peninsula issue.
Manning points out that the North Korean issue is not seen as urgent because other regional issues, such as Ukraine and the Middle East, tend to overshadow it.
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