PolyMarket is a prediction platform that utilizes virtual assets (virtual currencies), and it has been evaluated as having achieved significant results in the Web3 industry, where there have been no popular services until now.
According to blockchain data platform LayerHub on the 5th, the number of active wallets on PolyMarket was 348,892 as of that day.
PolyMarket and other cryptocurrency-based services cannot be used without connecting a cryptocurrency wallet. Therefore, the number of wallets does not tell us the actual number of users.
In particular, the number of wallets on PolyMarket has increased sharply since the end of July, when President Biden decided to step down and Vice President Kamala Hari Su emerged as a candidate.
The election has become more and more serious, and the PolyMarket has suddenly emerged as an indicator that can measure the results of the presidential election. This is due to the advantage of PolyMarket, which allows you to know the information in real time.
To participate in voting on PolyMarket, you need to purchase the stablecoin USDC. Transfer this USDC to PolyMarket and vote for the candidate you want to vote for.
For example, the current polymarket gives Republican candidate Donald Trump a 61% chance of winning, ahead of Democratic candidate Ha Ri Su, who has 39%.
To enter a "ramp win" position, you would purchase one Trump Win position for 0.61 cents of USDC. Then, if Trump wins on Election Day, the corresponding
The price of a position is 1 cent, and users who purchase a position in advance can earn a profit. The voting situation can be utilized in real time. This allows the public opinion to be easily understood.
The advantage is that it can track changes more quickly. In this regard, Hashed Open Research recently published a report titled "PolyMarket Real-Time Winning Probability Data
has overtaken traditional survey organizations to become the data source most frequently referenced by major U.S. media outlets when tracking changes in public opinion."
He continued, "Polymarket's relative strength compared to traditional research agencies is that it is able to provide real-time information on various events that occur.
"The public's reaction to the vent is reflected immediately, 24 hours a day, 365 days a year," he added.
PolyMarket is also being used to quickly find out about the candidates. However, there are limitations. PolyMarket is a method of voting for "candidates who are likely to win" rather than "candidates you support."
For this reason, there is a limit where it is difficult to reflect approval ratings, and because people bet money on voting, "wash trading" occurs to manipulate public opinion and make profits.
Blockchain data analysis companies Chaos Lab and Inka Digital recently released a joint research report entitled “Understanding the ‘wash trading’ situation in PolyMarket”
"Based on the data on the blockchain, we filtered out so-called 'market makers' and found that they accounted for 30% of transactions in PolyMarket.
"1 is likely a wash trade to inflate trading volume," he explained. Nevertheless, the Web3 industry has been evaluating PolyMarket as having achieved meaningful results.
This is because there have been very few cases in which Web 3 services that utilize blockchain technology and virtual assets have been widely popularized.
Hashed Open Research said, "Polymarket is an existing blog
Compared to other blockchain-based prediction platforms such as Augur and Gnosis, the number of visitors, followers on social platforms, and citations by major media outlets
"Whether PolyMarket can function as a market indicator with reliable predictive power in the future will depend on the outcome of this presidential election," he said.
"The 2024 US presidential election will be an opportunity to determine whether traditional polling agencies or prediction markets like PolyMarket have the most accurate forecasting power," he said.
"This is a good testing opportunity."
2024/11/05 17:32 KST
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