Strong inflows of physical Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), an end to a seven-month decline, and an overall victory for the US Republican Party have combined to drive institutional investors’ bets.
Bitcoin distribution is expanding. On the 6th, the Bitcoin futures trading volume at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) reached a record high of $13.15 billion (approximately 2.85 trillion yen).
The open contracts for Bitcoin reached 15,255 BTC. This means that institutional investors are positioning themselves for a rise on the CME, with $1.1 billion in open contracts on the 6th.
The addition of new contracts reflects this belief. Multibillion-dollar inflows into physical Bitcoin ETFs before the election have been followed by strong inflows since the election.
Yin's open contracts have been growing steadily, with the election of pro-crypto lawmakers across the U.S. government a positive development.
Stock and crypto markets are expected to continue to see the Federal Reserve cut interest rates
The US has also responded positively. This was further reinforced by the Fed's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on the 7th. This raises the possibility that the US will strategically stockpile Bitcoin.
This, along with expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates at its next FOMC meeting, is also boosting investor confidence and encouraging more investment into stocks and crypto assets.
HighStrike’s cryptocurrency options firm sees increased activity in the Chicago Board of Trade’s Bitcoin futures and options markets
"The continued demand in Coinbase's spot market reflects increased demand from U.S. institutional investors following Trump's victory," said JJ, head of options and derivatives.
This could be due to a perceived reduction in White House hostility towards the cryptocurrency industry, as well as the 90%+ volatility expected in options markets during the election.
Given the low realized volatility, implied volatility on longer maturity options has stabilized at the 50% level and has been consolidating there for the past two months.
"This situation makes it more attractive to buy long-term call options from an options perspective. Bitcoin has risen to an all-time high and is now at a new low," JJ said.
Despite the influx of strong demand, options implied volatility (IV) has been at its previous high of over 80% in March and as high as 70% during the July rally.
"It has not yet reached the level where it recorded 100.0 percent."
2024/11/08 17:12 KST
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