If Trump is re-elected, what will be South Korea's growth rate? - South Korean media

With President Trump re-elected in the 47th U.S. presidential election and the return of the Trump era, the Korea Development Institute (KDI), a government-run research institute, has adjusted its forecast for South Korea's economic growth rate for this year and next year.
If Trump's policy principles, such as universal tariffs and tax cuts, are implemented, it could increase external uncertainty and have a negative impact on the Korean economy as a whole.
According to the Ministry of Strategy and Finance, the KDI will release its "KDI Economic Outlook for the Second Half of 2024" on the 12th. Previously, the KDI announced in August that the Korean economy will
It lowered its growth forecast for this year by 0.1 percentage point from three months ago, citing a slow recovery in domestic demand due to prolonged high interest rates, even as the economy is improving thanks to exports, mainly semiconductors.2
The outlook for the economy has been revised to 5%. The slump in domestic demand is expected to ease next year, but the growth trend in exports is predicted to be adjusted, so the forecast was maintained at 2.1%.
If the so-called "Trump risks" such as tariff barriers and a strong dollar were to materialize, there are concerns that it could have a negative ripple effect on the Korean economy.
The majority of major domestic and international analysis institutes are of the opinion that Korea's growth rate next year may fall by about 1%.
In a report titled "Trumponomics 2.0 and the Korean Economy," the Korea Economic Research Institute estimated that South Korea's growth rate could fall by 0.5 to 1.1 percentage points.
Looking at the monthly economic trends released by the KDI for the second half of this year, it has been diagnosed that while exports are doing well, domestic demand is slowing down.
In the April issue, "The economy remains at a weak level," in the September issue, "The recovery has been delayed due to the trend of high interest rates," in the October issue, "The recovery has been delayed, especially in investment in the construction industry," and in the November issue, "Investment in the construction industry continues to be sluggish.
The government's report on employment trends for October 2024, which will be released by the Statistics Korea on the 13th, predicts that the job market adjustment phase will continue.
The increase in the number of employed persons, which was in the 300,000 range from January to February, was below 100,000 in May (80,000) and June (96,000), but has remained above 100,000 for three consecutive months since July (172,000).
The South Korean government explained that the sharp increase in cases from 2022 to 2023, which occurred after the end of the COVID-19 pandemic, is now in the process of converging as a long-term trend.
However, it is noteworthy that the rate of increase is low in the construction industry by industry and in the young generation by age group. The number of construction workers in September was down 100,000 from a year ago, and the number of workers in the construction industry was 100,000 lower than in the 2013 10th Industrial Classification Revision.
The number of unemployed young people increased by 63,000, the largest increase since January 2021, when it rose to 112,000.