As uncertainty grows over the new Trump administration, there are growing concerns that domestic demand will weaken. Next week, we will confirm the strength of domestic demand, such as consumption and investment, through the October industrial activity trend.
The Ministry of Strategy and Finance will announce a series of indicators that will provide a glimpse into the consumer's spending power, including the results of the third quarter household trend survey.
The ministers are scheduled to meet for the first time in two years to announce support measures for the semiconductor industry, which is a key player in the industry.
According to the Ministry of Strategy and Finance, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Strategy and Finance Choi Sang-mok said on the 27th,
He presides over the Ministerial Meeting on Strengthening Industrial Competitiveness. The meeting is attended by industry and economy-related departments such as the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy. The Ministerial Meeting on Strengthening Industrial Competitiveness was held in the wake of restructuring in the shipping and shipbuilding industries.
The meeting was first held in 2016, and was reconvened after a two-year hiatus to discuss response strategies for each industry ahead of the start of Trump's second term in power.
Deputy Prime Minister Choi is scheduled to announce, together with the Ministry, a plan to strengthen support for the semiconductor sector. On the same day, Deputy Prime Minister Choi will visit a domestic AI semiconductor design company to communicate with the industry.
The Foreign Economic Ministers' Meeting and the Foreign Economic Ministers' Conference will also be held on the 29th. The government plans to hold weekly meetings until the start of the next Trump administration to share information and discuss the Korean government's response.
The meeting is expected to cover a range of topics, from trade and industry to concerns over external factors impacting domestic demand.
The Statistics Korea report on population trends for September is due to be released on the 27th. The number of births from January to August this year was 158,011, down 5% from the same period last year.
This was a decrease of 98 people (0.4%). However, the number of births recorded over 20,000 from July to August, showing an upward trend for two consecutive months, and the number of marriages, which is considered a leading indicator of childbirth, has increased since the COVID-19 outbreak.
As a result, it is expected that the number of births will start to increase this year. The Korea National Statistical Office will release the "3rd Quarter Household Trends Survey" on the 28th. This will analyze household monthly average income and expenditures, as well as income by quintile.
As of the second quarter, the average monthly income per household was 4,961,000 won (US$5,440), down 3.5% from a year ago.
However, real household income, which reflects prices, increased by only 0.8%, which was affected by high prices. Recently, interest has been focused on the tangible improvement in household finances, supported by stable prices.
The October industrial activity trend index will be released on the 29th. Recent industrial activity trends have confirmed a slump in domestic demand, especially in the construction industry. Retail sales, which indicate consumption as of September, were down 1.2% from last year.
This is a 2.2% decrease from the same period in 2016, indicating that consumption has yet to recover. Investment in the construction industry also fell 1.2%, continuing a downward trend for five consecutive months, and is unable to escape the slump.
The South Korean government did not use the phrase "signs of recovery in domestic demand" in its November economic report for the first time in seven months, raising concerns about domestic demand. This indicator is also a critical turning point.
In addition, the Korea National Statistical Office will release the "2022 National Transfer Estimate" on the 26th. The national transfer estimate is an index that reflects the allocation of resources among different age groups, and the amount of the transfer will change with age.
This shows labor income and consumption. People tend to live in the red during their teenage years and before they start working, then live in the black from labor income until retirement, and then re-enter the red after retirement.
However, it is believed that subtle changes can be observed.
2024/11/24 07:08 KST
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