OECD: South Korea's population to drop by half over the next 60 years

On the 5th (local time), the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) published a booklet summarizing the current state of South Korea's serious declining birthrate and measures to address it.
The OECD has published a pamphlet titled "Korea's Unborn Future: Understanding the Declining Birthrate Trend," in which it states that the decline in the birth rate is a global phenomenon.
Although this is a common phenomenon, South Korea has revealed that its total fertility rate (the number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime) will be 0.72 by 2023, the lowest in the world.
According to the booklet, if South Korea's birth rate remains at its current level, the population is expected to halve over the next 60 years, and by 2082, about 58% of the total population will be aged 65 or older.
The elderly dependency ratio (the ratio of the population aged 65 and over to the population aged 20-64) was projected to increase sharply from the current 28% to 155%.
The OECD attributes South Korea's lower birth rate to high private education costs and housing costs.
The OECD also cited various efforts by South Korea to reduce the use of private education, including improving the quality of public education, regulating private education institutions, and removing "highly difficult questions" from university entrance exams.
He pointed out that while the government has been making efforts to improve education, it has not been able to fully resolve fundamental problems such as the dual structure of the labor market and the hierarchy of universities.
Housing costs doubled between 2013 and 2019, reducing the likelihood of getting married.
The analysis found that the birth rate fell by 4 to 5.7 percentage points. In addition, the culture of long working hours, lack of flexibility in terms of working hours and place of work, and the difficulty of balancing work and family life were also cited as factors in the decline in the birth rate.
The OECD pointed out that in order to prevent a decline in South Korea's birth rate, family policies need to be reviewed on an area-by-area basis. First, in the area of childcare, it is necessary to align childcare service hours with commuting times.
They also proposed that childcare facilities in the workplace should be expanded. Improvements to the childcare leave system were also called for. Korea's childcare leave income replacement rate (80%) is the highest among OECD countries, but
The upper limit of the allowance (1.5 million won in 2024, or about 154,300 yen) is only 46% of the average wage, compared to Sweden (95%), Norway (124%), and France (82%).
The OECD pointed out that South Korea's birth rate continues to fall despite the country's expansion of public spending on family policies, and suggested that public support is more about improving childcare costs than direct financial support.
The OECD also warned that it will take time for South Korea to raise its birth rate, and that it will face a labor shortage in the meantime.
The OECD also suggested that measures to compensate for this should be considered at the same time. In particular, it pointed out that expanding female employment is important. The female employment rate in South Korea is 61.4% of the population aged 16 to 64 as of 2023,
This is lower than the OECD average of 63.2%. In particular, it was pointed out that Japan has one of the highest employment gaps between men and women among OECD countries.
Furthermore, the need to raise the effective working age was also raised.202
According to a 2013 survey by Statistics Korea targeting people aged 55 to 79, 70% of respondents said they wanted to continue working, but the average retirement age for major careers was only 52.7 years old.
The OECD pointed to company-specific retirement ages that are lower than the statutory pension age and the practice of encouraging early retirement as problems.
The OECD also recommended that skilled labor be actively welcomed.
In order to attract workers, it is necessary to ease various visa restrictions and improve the poor working conditions of low-skilled workers.
It predicts that if the number of births in the country can be increased and the total fertility rate can be raised to 1.1, gross domestic product (GDP) could increase by 12% by 2070.