Climate change will cause seafood prices to soar... ”Squid may disappear by 2050” = South Korean report

Climate change has changed the distribution of fishing grounds near the Korean Peninsula, causing catches to decline and causing a sharp rise in prices of fish that were previously caught in abundance, such as squid, mackerel, and hairtail.
The prevailing view is that the supply of major seafood off South Korea's coast will continue to decline, and seafood prices are likely to continue to rise.
Prices for imported squid and other fish are also rising, and experts are advising that fishing quotas need to be controlled to adapt to climate change.
According to the 2024 Fisheries Production Statistics released by the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries, squid catches last year were 10,354, down 42.1% from the previous year.
The total squid catch was 6 tons, the lowest since records began. In 2015, the squid catch was 155,743 tons, but it has fallen by a factor of 10 in 10 years.
Squid, a representative fish species along the coast of the Sea of Japan, is estimated to be declining in numbers due to a rise in the water temperature of the Sea of Japan of 2 to 4 degrees.
Not only squid but also mackerel (down 17.4%) and hairtail (down 26.6%) also declined. As a result, the catches of major fish species decreased, and the catches of marine products caught in coastal waters last year also decreased.
The catch volume was 841,000 tons, down 11.6% from the previous year, the lowest figure since 1971. Currently, squid prices are soaring due to a shortage of domestic squid.
According to the Korea Agro-Fisheries Trade Corporation (AT), as of the 6th, refrigerated squid caught in coastal waters was priced at 9,309 won (about 952 yen) per serving, up 2.4% from a year ago and 18.5% from the average.
The price of a single mackerel also rose 46.5% compared to a year ago. The prices of these items continue to rise, and this is affecting the overall price level.
The 2019 Consumer Price Index found that while prices of agricultural products such as fruits and vegetables have fallen, the price of seafood has risen faster than the consumer price index (2%).
The Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries has classified high-consumption items such as squid, mackerel, and anchovies as "popular fish species" and set prices.
In order to control the price of squid in particular, the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries increased the amount of fish caught in distant waters, such as the Argentine Falkland Islands, last year.
The total squid catch in the year was 63,156 tons, double the amount from the year before (31,511 tons). An official from the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries said, "Other pelagic fish species such as bonito are processed into canned goods and some are exported.
"However, almost all of the squid caught in the ocean is consumed domestically in Korea," he explained. The problem is that the price of ocean squid, which has been considered a substitute for domestic squid, is also on the rise.
As of the 6th, the price of one frozen ocean-caught squid was 4,427 won (about 452 yen), about half the price of domestic squid, but it was up 13.2% from a year ago.
An official from the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries said, "Prices for squid caught in the open sea are also on the rise due to increased demand for squid."
The explanation is that despite the fact that domestic squid catch is almost nonexistent, demand remains high, making price increases inevitable.
Thus, while seafood prices continue to rise, the outlook for catches is not bright.
The Korea Marine Institute (KMI) predicts that if fossil fuel-fueled growth continues, catches of most coastal fisheries will decline by 15 to 60 percent by 2050.
It is expected that not only squid but also corvina, anchovy, herring, and other fish will decline. Systematization of the fishing industry is necessary not only to control the prices of marine products but also to ensure the sustainability of the fishing industry.
"If fish disappear or move, it could lead to higher fishing distances and fuel costs, which could lead to higher seafood prices," said Cho Hong-ju, head of the Fisheries Management and Resources Research Institute at KMI.
"Not only that, but the fishing environment in the coastal waters itself could change," he said, adding, "In order to maintain sustainable catches, we need to expand the business safety net for fishermen and implement policies that encourage them to quit fishing through pensions and other measures."
On the other hand, the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries has established a total allowable catch (TAC) system, which determines and allocates fishing quotas to manage fishery resources, and a system of trading the allocated catches.
The government plans to test systems such as transferable individual quotas (ITQs) to systematically control catch volumes.