Bitcoin's main indicator suggests ”correction market is over” - possibility of recovery to $90,000

Bitcoin's correction may have ended due to factors including the derivatives market, a weak dollar, and the growing US budget crisis, reports have emerged.
On the 11th (local time), Bitcoin fell by about 30% from its all-time high of $109,350, but the four major indicators
This suggests that the correction is over. Bitcoin fell to as low as $76,700 on the same day, hitting its lowest price in four months. This is the same week that the S&P 500 index fell.
The stock market correction pushed the S&P 500 to a six-month low as investors worried a global recession was becoming more likely.
Some analysts have argued that Bitcoin has entered a bear market, but this price correction is quite different from the November 2021 bear market, Cointelegraph reported.
At the time, Bitcoin had plummeted 41% in 60 days from $69,000 to $40,560, marking the start of a full-scale bear market. The same pattern is likely to repeat itself.
If that happens, the price will need to fall to $64,400 by the end of March, but the current correction is expected to end on June 7, 2024, when the price will fall 31.5% from $71,940 to $49,220 in 60 days.
This is similar to the trend seen in the past. Also, during the bear market in 2021, the US dollar was strong, and the DXY (Dollar-Japanese Yen Index) rose from 92.4 in September 2021 to 96.0 in December. However, the DXY is currently
The Y has fallen from 109.2 in early 2025 to 104. Bitcoin is generally seen as a risk asset that moves in the opposite direction to the DXY, so investors are likely to be cashing out in the current market.
There has been no sign of any sign of a rally in value, which is supporting the price of Bitcoin. The Bitcoin derivatives market is also still going strong. The annualized futures premium is 4.
It has remained at the 5% level, which is a stable trend despite a 19% drop from March 2 to 11. On the other hand, on June 18, 2022, it plummeted 44% in 12 days,
This indicator has fallen below 0% in the past. The Bitcoin perpetual futures funding rate has also been hovering around 0%, indicating that long (buying) and short (selling) positions are well balanced.
In bear markets, demand for short positions tends to surge and funding rates tend to go negative, but that is not the case in the current market.
Meanwhile, investment sentiment towards AI-related stocks has worsened, and uncertainty is growing in the stock market as a whole. Tesla has fallen 54% from its high, and Palantir
-40%, Nvidia -34%, Blackstone -32%, Broadcom -29%, TSMC -26%, ServiceNow
Many large technology stocks fell sharply, including by -25%. Investors are threatening a shutdown if the government doesn't pass a debt ceiling bill by March 15.
But according to Yahoo Finance, Republicans are divided over the bill, especially with Republican Rep. Mike Johnson.
In the House of Representatives Speaker Johnson's proposal, the increase in the defense and immigration budgets has emerged as the main issue. Risk asset markets, including Bitcoin, are likely to see positive growth if the government budget is agreed upon.
The real estate market is also showing signs of distress, which could spur capital outflows into other scarce assets, including Bitcoin, which could potentially boost the value of Bitcoin in the long term.
On February 27, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) announced that the number of home contract signings in January hit an all-time low.
Considering the current market environment as a whole, some analysts believe that Bitcoin is unlikely to enter a bear market, leaving the door open for a recovery to $90,000.