Will Ethereum's downward trend continue? ”It may continue into the third quarter”

Multiple data indicators are painting a bearish picture for the ETH/BTC pair this year. Ethereum (ETH) has entered oversold conditions multiple times in recent months, but has yet to see a price bottom.
Moreover, the current Ethereum market structure is following a similar pattern to the past, with the same pattern repeating itself in the second and third quarters of this year.
The relative strength index (RSI) on the three-day chart of ETH/BTC remains below 30, which is generally a indicator of a possible bounce.
However, historical data shows that just because the RSI reaches an oversold level doesn't necessarily mean a bounce will happen immediately. Instead, it signals further declines and continued bearishness.
Since mid-2024, ETH/BTC has repeated the same pattern of declines multiple times, recording losses of 13%, 21%, 25%, and 19.5%, respectively.
Also, the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) are continuing to trend down, confirming the absence of strong buyers in the market.
CarpeNoctom, a market analyst at X, noted the weakness of ETH/BTC, with a bullish divergence on the weekly chart.
"Normally, a bullish divergence means that the price is making a lower low while the RSI is making a higher low. But now, ET
H/BTC is not showing such a signal. The downward trend in ETH/BTC is more pronounced when compared to the overall crypto market.
In particular, there has been sustained outflows from U.S.-based ETH spot ETFs, with on-chain data also showing negative trends.
As of March, net inflows into ETH physical ETFs fell 9.8% to $2.54 billion.
During the same period, BTC spot ETF net inflows decreased by 2.35% but still reached $35.74 billion.
At $1.000 billion, it remains an overwhelming leader over ETH. The gas cost (average daily cost) of the Ethereum network has also plummeted.
At the GWEI level, this is more than a 50-fold decrease from a year ago.