Prediction market Kalshi predicts 67% chance of US recession in 2025

It turns out that 67% of people are predicting that the US economy will be in a slump this year. As of 10 a.m. on the 7th, Kalshi, a US prediction market platform,
A survey found that 67% of respondents predicted that the US would fall into recession in 2025. This comes after US President Donald Trump recently signed an executive order imposing reciprocal tariffs.
The market reacted sharply after the recession. Karsi uses the official US Commerce Department standard of two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product (GDP) growth as a definition of a recession, and the probability of a recession is
It has nearly doubled since March 20. This is also reflected in another prediction market, Polymarket, where investors also predicted the probability of a recession.
The executive order signed by President Trump imposes a 10% basic tariff on all countries and provides for "reciprocal" tariffs on trade partners that impose existing tariffs on U.S. imports.
The move triggered a massive sell-off in the U.S. stock market immediately after its announcement, leading to the evaporation of more than $5 trillion in shareholder value within days.
Market analysts say if the move leads to a long-term trade war, it could hit global markets and push up prices across assets, including risky cryptocurrencies.
He warned that the U.S. economy could fall as fears of a recession grow. Meanwhile, President Trump expressed confidence that the move would strengthen the U.S. economy in the long term and reduce trade imbalances.
In a speech on April 3, he emphasized that the current market decline was an expected process, and that the market will eventually rebound strongly.