The possibility of a sharp rise is also being raised. According to reports, Bitcoin has fallen 1.5% in the past month, but investors who have used options to protect against downside risks are preparing for a larger drop.
However, the recent price recovery offers bulls an opportunity to strengthen the $105,000 support line and potentially serve as a prelude to a further all-time high.
In the options market, which is set to expire on the 27th, there are currently $11.2 billion in call options (buying) and $8.8 billion in put options (selling).
Of these options, $7.1 billion is concentrated with strike prices below $101,000, making them risk-free at current market levels. This allows bullish betting, primarily on call options, to take place.
The market has been favorably structured. The main variable in the market is the statement of Fed Chairman Powell. Chairman Powell appeared before the US House of Representatives Financial Services Committee and said, "There are many different paths to the
"If inflation remains subdued, we could consider lowering interest rates sooner," he said. Fed governors Michelle Bowman and Chris Waller also said in July that the Fed would "continue to hold off on lowering interest rates."
The Fed has mentioned the possibility of lowering interest rates at its FOMC meeting. This stance has led to a preference for risk assets, and the S&P 500 index recently hit a four-month high.
Bulls are eyeing the possibility that funds trapped in short-term government bonds could move back into the cryptocurrency market.
The 500's projected earnings growth of just 5% also boosts Bitcoin's relative attractiveness.
Even if central banks do not increase liquidity, the decline in bond yields alone could create a favorable environment for Bitcoin, according to the analysis.
The most effective strategy for bears looking to protect short positions at this options expiration is to take advantage of market uncertainty.
Cointelegraph reported that the reasons for this include the sudden drop in the Bitcoin network's hash rate and rising geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East.
Considering the current price is around $107,300, bears need to push Bitcoin price 5% below $101,500 by Friday to cut their losses.
On the other hand, bulls can hold above $106,000 to better position themselves for a rally in July.
Continued capital inflows could spur further gains.
2025/06/26 15:50 KST
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