South Korea needs to maintain 500,000 standing troops to deter North Korean attacks, study says

An analysis has been published stating that in order to defend against attacks from North Korea, it is necessary to maintain a standing military force of at least 500,000. The paper argues that the current declining birth rate will make it difficult to maintain military strength in the future.
The article, "Study on the Appropriate Normal Force Size of the Korean Military," published in the summer edition of the academic journal "National Defense Policy Research" on the 27th, states that the "minimum planned size of the Korean military" is
This figure was derived based on the military doctrine of "the probability of success." This doctrine states that when attacking, one's forces need to have a 3:1 advantage over the enemy, and when defending, one can have a 1:3 disadvantage with the possibility of success.
The total military strength of North Korea as of 2022 is 1.28 million and South Korea is 500,000, a ratio of about 2.6 to 1. For the ground forces alone, the ratio is 3 to 1, the minimum planned ratio.
However, if the current birth rate continues, the population of 20-year-old men will fall to 140,000 by 2040, making it difficult to secure a military force of 300,000.
The research team pointed out that, "South Korea's wartime operational plans assume the mobilization of hundreds of thousands of troops and reinforcements by the U.S. military in the early stages of war, but the implementation of these plans cannot be guaranteed."
He expressed concern that the chances of winning an early stage surprise attack by North Korea were low, and stressed that "it will be difficult to overcome the overwhelming size of the North Korean military with just the qualitative superiority of the military."
The early struggles of the Russian military in the Russo-Ukrainian war were also analyzed in terms of this minimum planned ratio. At the start of the war, Russia had a 4:1 advantage in total forces, but its ground forces
Comparing military strength alone, the ratio was about 1:1.3, and it was concluded that this was one of the reasons for the struggle. The paper concluded that "Unless North Korea reduces its military strength, South Korea will maintain its 500,000-strong military.
To achieve this, he said, "We need to implement a variety of measures at the national level, such as adjusting the length of military service, combining conscription and recruitment, and utilizing civilian human resources."
The 2025-2029 mid-term defense plan announced by the South Korean Ministry of National Defense also includes provisions to maintain a force of 500,000 and strengthen the human resources necessary to develop a strong military based on science and technology.
is.