According to the Ministry of Strategy and Finance on the 20th, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) announced in May that Korea will
The government announced that the potential GDP growth rate for 2024 was 2% for each country. Both figures are higher than the estimates calculated in June last year (1.9% for 2023 and 1.7% for 2024).
The revised potential growth rate refers to the rate of GDP growth that a country can achieve without inducing price increases while mobilizing all production factors (labor, capital, resources, etc.).
The potential growth rate, which was 2.4% from 2020 to 2021, fell to 2.3% in 2022, and then dropped to 2% from last year and is remaining at 2% this year, a record low of 0.0% over the past five years.
In contrast, the United States' potential growth rate for 2020-2023 rose from 1.9% to 2.1%, and is expected to remain at the same level this year as last year.
This was the first time Japan surpassed South Korea's potential growth rate since statistics on the growth rate began in 2001, and it is once again exceeding South Korea's potential growth rate this year.
The higher the income level of a country, the lower the rate of growth in total factor productivity.
In light of this, it is unusual that South Korea's potential growth rate is lower than that of the United States, which has a higher income level.
South Korea's per capita gross national income (GNI) is $35,990 (approximately JPY 5.38 million), which is only 47% of the level of the United States ($76,370/approximately JPY 11.42 million).
It has been analyzed that the decline in the productive population due to the low birth rate and aging population in Korea has contributed to the decline in the potential growth rate.
According to the Statistics Bureau, the proportion of the productive population aged 15 to 64 is expected to decline from 71.1% (36.74 million people) in 2022 to 45.8% (1.2 million people) in 2072.
The elderly dependency ratio, which is the ratio of elderly people per 100 working-age people, is expected to jump from 27.4 this year to 104.2 in 2072.
This figure is the third highest in the world after Hong Kong (158.4) and Puerto Rico (119.3).
In addition, the restructuring of Korea's industry has been slow, and the competitiveness of the service industry is weak.
In contrast, the United States is steadily developing new industries such as artificial intelligence (AI), centered on information technology (IT) companies. Not only the United States, but also major developed countries such as the United Kingdom and Germany have recently
The potential growth rate is showing a trend of increasing. Germany's growth rate increased slightly from 0.7% in 2020 to 0.8% this year. The UK's growth rate increased from 0.9% in 2020 to 1.2% last year in 2023 and 1.2% this year.
The growth rate of the economy has risen to 1.1%. Experts say that the loss of growth momentum due to the labor shortage should be overcome by improving total factor productivity, including capital and technology.
It encompasses factors such as the efficiency of resource allocation and the level of technology, and is usually measured as the increase in value added that is difficult to explain by the input of capital or labor.
However, it is analyzed that the rapid aging of the population will limit the improvement of growth potential.
When the number of workers decreases, the productivity of capital input also decreases, and the contribution of capital to growth generally also decreases.
"They argue that total factor productivity should be increased to overcome the associated decline in potential growth, but it will be difficult to increase total factor productivity at a time when the population is declining and the workforce is aging," he said.
It is being picked.
2024/10/21 07:09 KST
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