At 10:05 a.m. on the 26th (Japan time), Bitcoin was
The price rose 0.38% from 24 hours ago to $98,849. This is a 6.8% increase from the bottom of $92,500 on the 24th, but it is still below the record high of $17.
This is down 8.61% from the all-time high of $108,268 recorded in the past. Bitcoin derivatives are reportedly holding neutral to bullish positions, with the sharp price fluctuations keeping the market on its toes.
Such positions support the possibility of a sustainable rally above $105,000.
Bitcoin futures monthly contracts are trading at a premium of 12% to the spot market.
This indicates strong demand for leveraged long (buy) positions.
Premiums in the 5% to 10% range are generally considered neutral because the seller has reflected the extended settlement period in the price.
Bitcoin put options (sell) are trading at a 2% discount to the equivalent call options (buy), which is in line with the trend over the past two weeks.
When whales and market makers expect a price correction, this indicator typically exceeds 6%, indicating a premium on put options.
The recent recovery in traditional financial markets also contributed to Bitcoin's breakthrough to $98,000.
The S&P 500 index recovered its monthly losses on December 24th, and the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.59% from 4.23% two weeks ago, as investors became more willing to hold government debt.
The recent rise in U.S. Treasury interest rates generally reflects expectations of rising inflation or rising government debt, which could increase the value of current bond holdings.
On the flip side, scarce assets like stocks and Bitcoin often thrive at times when central banks must pump liquidity to buoy economies.
Bitcoin's upward trend has been limited as investors worry about the risk of a global economic downturn.
The overall impact on stock markets and real estate assets in these circumstances is difficult to predict.
Currently, the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index is 64%, which is relatively high.
The Reserve scaled back its outlook for interest rate cuts, saying it would now cut them to two in 2025, down from four previously expected.
This reduces the likelihood of a decline in corporate profits and real estate financing problems in the short term.
To gauge market sentiment, it is important to analyze the Bitcoin margin market.
Unlike derivative contracts, margin markets allow traders to trade in stable
You can borrow coins to buy spot Bitcoin, or borrow BTC to set up a short position (betting on the price to fall).
The Bitcoin long to short margin ratio on OKX is currently at a 25x level in favor of a long (buy) position.
Historically, excessive confidence has pushed this ratio above 40x, while a drop below 5x would be seen as a weakness for long positions. Both the Bitcoin derivatives and margin markets are showing bullish momentum.
This is despite record outflows from BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) on Dec. 24.
The resilience shown during the retest of the $92,458 level on December 23rd is a sign of Bitcoin's potential to rise to above $105,000.
This is strengthening optimism that
2024/12/26 12:40 KST
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