South Korean President Yoon arrested 47 days after declaring ”emergency martial law” - what are the prospects for the future?

South Korean President Yoon Seok-yeol was arrested in the early hours of the 19th on suspicion of masterminding a civil war. This is the first time a sitting president has been arrested in South Korea. Yoon was taken into custody on the 15th.
However, with his arrest, the Joint Investigation Headquarters was able to detain and interrogate Yoon for up to 20 days. Yoon declared "emergency martial law" late at night on the 3rd of last month. Emergency martial law is a martial law defined by the Korean Constitution.
A type of martial law. It is issued by the president in times of war, emergency, or other military emergencies, or to maintain public order. This is the first time that martial law has been issued since democratization in 1987.
Following the declaration, armed soldiers of the martial law army broke the windows and stormed into the National Diet Building. In a scene reminiscent of the military regime, many citizens gathered in front of the National Diet and chanted slogans against martial law.
However, if a majority of the members of the National Assembly request the lifting of martial law, the President must comply with this request.
The meeting was held and all the lawmakers in attendance voted in favor of lifting the state of emergency. Yoon lifted it in just six hours. The opposition parties, including the Democratic Party of Korea, said Yoon was "attempting to suspend the constitutional order and start a civil war that will lead to a permanent seizure of power."
The National Assembly submitted a motion to impeach Yoon, pointing out that he had violated the Constitution by "attempting to commit a crime." The motion was voted on the 14th of last month, and passed with 204 votes in favor and 85 against. Yoon responded by
He was suspended from his duties, and now Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs and Minister of Strategy and Finance Choi Sang-mok is acting as president. The declaration of emergency law has caused great political and social unrest, and the opposition party has been urging Yoon to step down.
The suspects were accused of rioting. Article 87 of the Korean Criminal Code stipulates that if a riot is started with the intent of eliminating state power or violating the national constitution, it will be punished as a crime of treason. The maximum penalty is the death penalty. Korea
Article 84 of the Constitution stipulates that "The President shall not be liable to criminal prosecution while in office, except for cases of rebellion or foreign treason." Although the incumbent president enjoys immunity from arrest, there are no cases of rebellion.
So far, the independent investigative agency, the High-Ranking Public Officials Crime Investigation Agency (HPA), and the police's joint investigation headquarters have been investigating, and on the 15th of this month, the headquarters released a statement on Yoon's identity.
Yoon has continued to refuse questioning since his arrest. Meanwhile, the Public Prosecutors' Office requested an arrest warrant from the Seoul Western District Court on the 17th. On the 18th, the court reviewed the arrest warrant, and Yoon was arrested.
Yoon's lawyer suggested that he "attend the court in person and deal with the situation with dignity," to which Yoon agreed.
After reviewing the case, the Seoul Western District Court issued an arrest warrant for Yoon at around 2:50 a.m. on the 19th. Yoon was arrested. The court stated that the reason for issuing the warrant was that "there was a risk of evidence being destroyed."
South Korean news agency Yonhap News reported, "As the Public Prosecutor's Office, which requested the arrest warrant, claims, President Yoon changed his mobile phone around the time of the state of emergency and quit the communication app Telegram.
"It appears that they have decided that there is a concern that evidence may be destroyed, given that Yoon met with the police," he said. The ruling party People Power released a commentary by its chief spokesperson regarding Yoon's arrest.
He added, "I have doubts as to whether sufficient consideration was given to the impact of arresting a sitting president," and added, "I am extremely disappointed with the court's decision (to issue the arrest warrant)."
Meanwhile, the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea said, "The issuance of an arrest warrant for Yoon Seok-yeol, who masterminded the civil war, is the foundation for restoring the collapsed constitutional order.
A spokesman for the party said, "It is a common-sense decision befitting the leader of the crime of civil unrest that the entire nation witnessed in real time."
Meanwhile, the arrested Yoon said through his legal team, "It's a bit inconvenient.
"However, I am in detention," he said in a message to the public. Yoon was also charged with "rioting with the intent of disrupting the constitutional order" by the Public Prosecutor's Office regarding the emergency martial law and subsequent measures.
He criticized the application of the treason charge, saying that as a lawyer, it was difficult to understand. Yoon is a former member of the prosecutors' office and has also served as the prosecutor general.
Yoon's arrest came 47 days after the state of emergency was declared on the 3rd of last month.
Regarding future prospects, Yonhap News predicted that "indictment will be in February, and a first-instance verdict will be in August." Since Yoon has been arrested, the Joint Investigation Headquarters will detain and interrogate him for up to 20 days.
Yonhap expects Yoon to be interrogated for about 20 days and then indicted early next month. If indicted, the defendant can be held for up to six months, so the first trial verdict is expected to be announced in early August.
Furthermore, Yonhap predicted that "if the trial finds President Yoon guilty of masterminding a rebellion, he could be sentenced to life imprisonment or the death penalty."
If convicted, the offence may result in a fixed-term imprisonment or incarceration."