DeFi CEO and crypto analyst Chapo predicted that the market value to realized value (MVRV) metric will peak at around 3.2 this cycle.
"We expect MVRV to reach about 3.2 this cycle, which means the bull market will continue into 2025. We are still at the peak," Chapo said in a post on X.
The last time Bitcoin's MVRV reached this level was in April 2021, when it was at $58,253, and at the start of 2021, it was at $28,994.
MVRV is an indicator that measures whether Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued, and is a ratio that compares market value to realized value, so it is often referred to as "my
We haven't peaked yet," Chapo explained. Currently, Bitcoin's MVRV is 1.95 and the price of Bitcoin is trading at $85,692.
On the 25th of last month, Bitcoin fell below $90,000, the day after President Donald Trump announced he would impose a 25% tax on cryptocurrencies in Canada and Mexico.
Chapo said that historically, MVRV rises sharply when Bitcoin's price approaches a cycle peak. History has shown that MVRV is a key driver of market highs.
"It spikes vertically from the value, at which point profit-taking exceeds new buying interest and the risk/reward is no longer there for new entrants."
On January 20th, when Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $109,000, the MVRV spiked to 2.44. This was just before President Trump was inaugurated.
The MVRV was 2.67 in March when Bitcoin hit its previous all-time high of $73,679.
The rise in MVRV means more Bitcoin holders are benefiting
That means some are likely looking to realize profits. When profit realizers sell to new buyers, their cost basis falls, lowering MVRV, Chapo said.
2025/02/28 10:04 KST
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