Network economist Timothy Peterson wrote on X on the 8th that if the Federal Reserve holds off on lowering interest rates in 2025, it could trigger a market decline.
"What this market needs is a trigger, and that trigger is the Fed coming out this year," he said.
"I think it could simply be a decision not to cut interest rates at all," he said. His model predicts that Bitcoin will fall to a minimum of $57,000 in the next bear market.
But Peterson said, "There are so many investors flocking to Bitcoin like eagles that it's unlikely to fall that far."
This was made on the 7th when Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said, "We don't need to rush and we need to wait for clearer economic signals."
"There is a lot of wealth in the world," Peterson said in a speech in New York.
He is the author of the paper "Value," which predicted a bear market low for Bitcoin based on the fall of the Nasdaq index.
He applied his Nasdaq minimum price prediction model and predicted that the Nasdaq minimum price would rise as the bear market began.
The study predicts that the Nasdaq will bottom out after a 17% decline over about seven months, and then multiply the Nasdaq's decline by 1.9 to reflect Bitcoin's volatility, predicting that Bitcoin will fall by about 33%.
Based on this, they analyzed that the price could fall from the current CoinMarketCap level of $86,199 to $57,000.
However, he predicted that Bitcoin would not actually fall that far. Given the bear market data for 2022, Bitcoin could fall by 7
"Traders and opportunists are flocking to Bitcoin like eagles," he said, adding, "If Bitcoin hits the $57,000 mark, it's likely to form a bottom in the low $57,000 range."
"If it falls to that level, investors will think it's cheap enough and start buying, so it probably won't actually fall that far," he explained.
2025/03/10 16:49 KST
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