Extreme heat will become the new normal in South Korea's summers from 2030 onwards, according to a South Korean research team

From 2023 onwards, the average summer temperature on the Korean Peninsula is expected to exceed the temperature rise caused by natural factors. It is expected that every year will be hotter than usual, and extreme heat will become the new normal.
An international joint research team led by Professor Yoon Jinho of the Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering at the Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology (GIST) has released the "6th International Climate Model Future Outlook Data."
According to a long-term forecast of summer temperatures in 2024 released by the Korea Meteorological Administration in May, there is a 40-50% chance that the average monthly temperatures in July and August will be higher than normal, and a 40-50% chance that the average monthly temperatures will be lower than normal.
The lowest probability was 20%. If rising temperatures become the new normal due to global warming, the probability of South Korea experiencing colder than normal summer temperatures is expected to be close to 0%.
According to the research team, natural factors will continue to play an important role in summer temperatures on the Korean Peninsula, but summer temperatures from 2030 onwards will be higher than average.
However, in future scenarios that include efforts to mitigate global warming, such as the implementation of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the time when the new normal of rising temperatures will be reached is 204 years.
"This analysis will tell us when the current climate will change and anthropogenic climate change will occur," said Professor Yoon.