On the 17th (local time), Cointelegraph reported that Bitcoin (BTC) prices are rising as investors step up risk management one day before the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
According to analysts, this correction was the result of a combination of the weekly downturn, which indicates a weak trend, and rising geopolitical tensions, including the Iran-Israel conflict.
Swissblock-backed market analysis platform BitcoinVector
Vector believes the decline is not just due to macro factors, but also seasonal weakness and slowing network growth.
Notably, $434 million in Bitcoin futures positions were liquidated yesterday, proving that the move was a leveraged selloff.
However, the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index, an indicator of the price difference between U.S.-based exchanges Coinbase and Binance, has risen 1.2% since the start of the 2018 cryptocurrency.
The index remained positive throughout June, suggesting that physical demand among U.S. investors remains strong. However, the broader market conservatism is limiting the impact of this demand on prices.
The impact appears to be limited. According to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, “medium-term holders” who held bitcoin for six to 12 months lost 10% of their shares on the 16th.
In just one day, the company realized a $904 million profit. This figure is equivalent to 83% of the total realized profit, and represents a major change from the previous structure in which profits were realized by long-term holders of over one year.
This suggests that the composition of market participants is shifting towards short-term, reactive investors.
Holders are still refraining from a major sell-off, which is being seen as a typical signal of optimism that has emerged just before the start of previous bull markets.
Coinday said the on-chain metric MVRV Z-score remains at low levels, indicating Bitcoin is inherently undervalued.
CDD also saw limited profit realization, suggesting there was no panic in the market. Similar patterns have often been seen in the past, with a 1,825% rebound in 68 weeks.
Applying this to the current situation, some have predicted that Bitcoin could reach $130,000 by the end of the second quarter.
From a technical perspective, Cointelegraph predicts Bitcoin could reach $102,000 to $104,000 in the short term.
This price range is considered to be an area where the past order blocks were concentrated and liquidity is high, making it an area where a rebound is likely to occur.
In addition, there is a high possibility that the price will quickly approach the break line (approximately $106,000) from the lower Bollinger Band. This area has been a support and resistance area in the past, as well, since early June.
At this level, the conditions for a rally are ripe technically. The current contraction of the Bollinger Bands is also a teaser for the imminent expansion of volatility.
If Bitcoin closes above $106,748, this will validate the technical "mean reversion" scenario and the price will rise to 1
A rally to $12,000 is possible, whereas a clear breakout below $100,000 would leave open the possibility of a drop to $98,000.
According to Alfractal, the $98,300 realised price by short-term holders is acting as a key support level.
If this point holds, the market can still be considered strong, but if the level breaks down, the possibility of a deeper correction must be considered, Alfractal said.
2025/06/18 17:16 KST
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